The real estate market in Warren County is currently following seasonal trends, but could a wild card disrupt the market?
In a typical real estate market, October is known as the month for price reductions. This is caused by homes that have been on the market since earlier in the year, but haven’t sold, so they do a price reduction to attract an offer before the number of active buyers significantly drops off in November in December, which is another example of a typical real estate market.
Another exampe of a typical real estate market is that the number of homes available for sale increases in the last 3 months of the year due to declining sales as referenced in the preceding paragraph.
As you may remember, COVID gave us two years in the real estate market that we never saw before and will likely never see again. We call 2020 and 2021 the Unicorn Years and those years are sometimes left out of statistics because they significantly skewed the averages.
Homes for sale were scarce because they were selling so quickly. Because of that, we have been in what we call a Sellers Market for the last 4 years, meaning homes are selling at a rate that would deplete the current inventory of homes for sale in 4 months or less.
We are still in a Sellers Market, but if the current trends continue, we could move into a Balanced Market, which means it would take 4-6 months to sell every home currently on the market. A Balanced Market is a good thing. It means there is just the right amount of homes available for the number of buyers we currently have. As of last week in Central Iowa, there
were 3,702 homes for sale. The last time we had that many homes for sale was over 56 months ago!
If the market continues to trend as it normally does at this time of year, the number of homes selling will decline, the number of homes available for sale will increase, and we will move into a Balanced Market.
So what is the wild card? Interest rates! In 2022 rates jumped quickly and have hovered around 7% for a couple of years, but recently the rates have been dropping and we are currently about a full 2% down from highs seen a year ago. If interest rates continue to decline, it could bring buyers wanting to take advantage of lower rates back into the market and that could quickly
deplete the current inventory of homes for sale.
Data provided by the Des Moines Area Association of REALTORS®
Article by Jon Niemeyer, broker/owner of EXIT Realty North Star in Norwalk, IA. You can reach Jon at 515-981-5131 or Jon@EXITrealtynorthstar.com.
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